Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Xilin Gol Grassland Transects: A Perspective on Food Nutritional Demand

Food safety is an important issue for the development of the national economy and society. Studying regional food supply and demand from the perspective of land resource carrying capacity can provide new references for regional resource sustainability. This study uses the data from farmer and herdsmen household questionnaires, statistical data, land use data, and other sources to construct a land resource carrying capacity (LCC) assessment framework, targeting the food supply and demand of residents in representative areas, specifically the typical grassland pastoral areas, sandy pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas on the Xilin Gol grassland transects. The three food nutritional indicators of calories, protein and fat were selected for analyzing the balance of land resource carrying capacity. We found that: 1) Along the Xilin Gol grassland, the main local food supply showed a shift from meat and milk to grains, vegetables and fruits. 2) From north to south along the grassland transects, the calorie intake increased gradually, while the intake of protein and fat was highest in pastoral areas and lowest in agricultural areas. 3) The overall land resource carrying capacity of the Xilin Gol grassland transects was in a surplus state, but the land carrying capacity of typical grassland pastoral area was higher than the two other types of areas. This study provides an empirical reference for the sustainable development of regional food nutrition.     

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to...     

威海市褚岛北部海域CDOM和COD分布特征遥感分析

根据2017年7月和9月在山东威海褚岛北部海域现场测量的COD_(Mn)(Chemical oxygen demand)值和水体表观光学量,结合COMS(Communication,OceanMeteorological Satellite)上搭载的传感器GOCI(Geostationary Ocean Color Imager)所提供的有色可溶性有机物(Chromophoric dissolved organic matter,CDOM)产品,利用星地同步观测数据对现有的基于遥感反射比反演CDOM的模式进行验证,确定适合该海域的CDOM浓度遥感反演模式;通过对测试海域化学需氧量与遥感反演的水体CDOM浓度相关性分析,建立利用CDOM反演COD_(Mn)的遥感模式,并将该模式应用于测试海域LANDSAT 8/OLI(Operational Land Imager)遥感图像上,获取该海域COD_(Mn)浓度专题图,基于这些专题图分析了测试海域COD_(Mn)时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)基于GOCI产品的CDOM浓度值随时间和站点动态变化大,离岸越近数值越高,同一地点水体前后相差近1 h的数值变化也较大;(2)基于LANDSAT 8/OLI遥感数据反演的COD_(Mn)浓度时间动态变化大,总体来看褚岛附近水体的COD_(Mn)含量相对较低,褚岛以北海域水体COD_(Mn)含量有所增加,褚岛西侧水体的COD_(Mn)含量较东侧水体COD_(Mn)含量来说整体偏高。     

基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。     

An improved input energy spectrum verified by the shake table tests

Input energy is the principal component of the energy balance equation. It is beneficial to determine, through its components, how the recoverable and irrecoverable energies are distributed within the structural elements. Several equations and attenuation relations to define mass-normalized input energy spectra exist in the literature. They are mainly proposed for elastic systems subjected to far-fault EQs. There is a lack of experimental verification of these proposed spectra. In this paper, experimental assessment was performed to the existing spectra, and further improvements were accomplished. For this purpose, steel cantilever columns were tested on the shake table for two specific historical EQs coincidently having similar spectral acceleration values. Based on the experimental results, a three-part mass-normalized relative input energy spectrum was formulated including soil type, EQ (corner period, intensity, duration, spectral acceleration, and velocity), and structural behavioral characteristics (period and structural damping). The proposed input energy spectrum was experimentally calibrated and numerically validated for various EQs featuring near- and far-field types. Analytical and experimental comparisons were made between the previously developed spectrum and the newly proposed one. The validation studies and the statistical evaluations exposed that the proposed spectrum yielded better agreement with the experimental and numerical results.     

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.     

一个基于MOM的全球海洋数值同化预报系统

随着国家战略利益的拓展,国家对全球海洋环境预报保障的需求日益凸显。近年来,国家海洋环境预报中心研发并建立我国首个涵盖全球大洋的"全球海洋数值预报系统",该预报系统由MOM4全球海洋环流模式及三维变分同化系统组成。该系统的建立,实现了全球范围海洋环流预报业务全覆盖,为我国探索深海大洋环境的迫切需求提供有力保障,明显提升了我国海洋环境预报能力,体现了我国海洋数值预报技术的发展和进步。该系统的历史回报试验和业务化试运行结果表明其对全球海洋环境要素具有较好的预报能力,其预测结果已经在实际业务中得到了应用,在"雪龙号"极地遇险脱困、马航MH370失联飞机搜救等重大事件的预报保障任务中发挥了重要作用,为我国实施海洋强国战略,推进实施"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的战略构想,应对海上突发事件、维护国家海洋权益等各个方面提供有力的科技支撑和保障,并成为我国全球海洋预报业务的重要参考依据。     

ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在基于SPI干旱预测中的应用——以青海省为例

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础。利用1958—2017年青海省38个气象站点逐日降水量数据计算多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）,并建立了SPI序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）、长短时记忆神经网络模型（LSTM）和基于二者优点提出的ARIMA-LSTM组合模型;对模型参数进行率定和验证后,利用所建立的模型,以西宁站点为例,对多尺度SPI值进行预测,借助均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和决定系数R²对所有预测模型的有效性进行判定。结果表明：ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在SPI1和SPI12的RMSE值分别为0.159 7和0.181 0,均低于ARIMA模型的1.265 4和0.293 3,说明ARIMA模型与ARIMA-LSTM组合模型对SPI的预测精度都与时间尺度有关,ARIMA模型的预测精度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高;结合GIS并利用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明ARIMA-LSTM组合模型相比于单一ARIMA模型的预测精度更高,且能够很好拟合不同时间尺度的SPI值。     

地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

地缘政治风险是影响全球和区域和平、稳定与发展的5大风险之一。如何识别、评估、预测和管理地缘政治风险成为国内外共同关注的问题。国内外学者对地缘政治风险这一术语的定义还不统一。当前地缘政治风险研究,在致险因素分析、风险影响刻画、风险量化与制图等领域都有一些新进展。针对地缘政治风险致险因子的时空差异性和多变性、各致险因子相互影响与反馈机制的复杂性以及地缘政治风险的突发性和不确定性,对致险因素的精准识别,地缘政治风险形成的机理,地缘政治风险监测与模拟等研究成为核心和前沿问题。中国未来地缘政治风险和重要研究方向包括：周边地区地缘政治风险研究;地缘政治风险的定量化与模拟研究;跨学科、大数据、多终端的地缘政治风险集成计算方法与预警服务平台建设;凝炼科学问题,提升对现实地缘政治问题的解释能力。     

Loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in conventional and emerging steel frames

Quasi-static testing is one of the most commonly used experimental methods for examining the seismic performance of structural members. However, consistent loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in emerging steel frames such as self-centering braced frames (SCBFs) as well as in some conventional ones including buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are still lacking. This paper aims to propose standardized loading protocols based on time-history dynamic analysis on a series of prototype building frames, including steel SCBFs, BRBFs, and moment-resisting frames (MRFs), where both far-field and near-fault earthquakes are considered. The methodology for the development of the loading protocols involves ground motion selection and scaling, design and analysis of prototype buildings, analysis results processing, and rainflow cycle counting, together with extra justification steps. The proposed loading protocols are consistently derived based on the MCE-level seismic hazard and 84^th percentile values of key seismic demand parameters. These parameters are number of damaging cycles N_t, maximum inter-story drift θ_max, inter-story drift range Δθ_i, sum of inter-story drift range ΣΔθ_i, and residual inter-story drift θ_r. The analysis confirms the variations in these seismic demands imposed on the different structural systems under different types of ground motions, highlighting the necessity of developing separate loading protocols for the different cases. The assumptions, decisions, and judgments made during the development of the loading protocols are elaborated, and the conditions and restrictions are outlined. The rationality of the proposed loading protocols is further justified through demonstrating the cumulative distribution function and energy dissipation demand of the systems.